Resources

Ensuring Sufficient Renewable Energy for Korea’s Climate Goals:

Analysis of 2035 NDC, energy targets, and policy implications

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the alignment between Korea's 2035 NDC targets and the 11th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand (BPLE). It evaluates Korea’s renewable energy deployment along with international comparisons and assesses the sufficiency of the renewable energy supply in light of the electricity demand from RE100-committed corporations. While Korea’s current share of renewable generation and installed capacity remains lower than the OECD average, the government’s targets—100 GW by 2030 and 150–160 GW by 2035—presume an average annual growth rate of 15.6%. If realized, renewable capacity will increase by approximately 3.13 times by 2030 and 4.7 to 5 times by 2035 compared to the 2022 level of approximately 32 GW.

[Contents]

Executive Summary

Recommendations

Methodology

1. Comparative Study on NDC 3.0 Target and Renewable Energy Target

1.1. 11th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand

1.2. 2030 and 2035 NDCs and Emissions Reduction Progress

1.3. Policy Coherence Between 2035 NDC, 11th BPLE, and Global RE standards

2. Assessment of Renewable Energy Sufficiency

2.1. Korean RE100 Firms and Renewable Demands

2.2. Renewable Energy Sufficiency

3. Policy Implications for Deploying Renewable Energy

3.1. Industrial Complex RE100

3.2. Key Features of the Distributed Energy Act (DEA)

3.3. Potentials and Implications of Renewable Energy Expansion

4. Conclusion

[Key Findings] 

    2035 NDC Overview

The Korean government finalized its 2035 NDC target in November 2025 and announced it at COP30. The 2035 NDC is presented as a range-based goal, aiming for a 53% to 61% reduction from 2018 net emission levels (approx. 742.3 million tons). The power sector(energy transition sector) is the core of this effort, requiring a reduction of 68.8% (lower bound) to 75.3% (upper bound) from 2018 levels (283 million tons) to reach a target of 70.0 to 88.3 million tons by 2035.

    Gaps Between the 2035 NDC and the 11th BPLE

The report analysis reveals a significant gap between the reduction trajectory of the 2035 NDC and the 11th BPLE. The emissions pathway for the power sector in the 11th BPLE is projected at 106.7 million tons in 2035, resulting in a gap of 18.4 million tons compared to the NDC lower bound and 36.7 million tons compared to the upper bound. Furthermore, while the 11th BPLE assumes an annual reduction rate of 6%, the 61% NDC target requires a much steeper rate of 13.6%—more than double. Therefore, the 12th BPLE, scheduled for 2026, must readjust electricity demand forecasts, the power mix, and emission factor pathways to ensure consistency with the strengthened 2035 NDC.

Inquiries: Seung Youn Seo, Senior Researcher(syseo@kosif.org), Nahyun Nam, Senior Researcher(nhn5505@kosif.org)